Challenges for coastal protection in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania for the 21st century
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3112/erdkunde.2025.03.06Keywords:
coastal protection, coastal erosion, coastal flooding, climate change, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, sea-level riseAbstract
In 2020, the German Working Group on water issues of the Federal States and the Federal Government represented by the Federal Environment Ministry (LAWA) introduced the precautionary measure of 1.0 m for the expected sea level rise due to climate change for the next 100 years. As a result, the framework of tasks for the coastal protection in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and other coastal federal states changed significantly. The most relevant consequences are the increase in mean water levels and the associated expansion of permanently inundated zones. In addition, rising mean water levels are accompanied by an expected analogous increase in extreme water levels during storm surges and, therefore, a further extension of potentially flooded areas in these cases. Moreover, sea level rise or a change in meteorological and hydrodynamic conditions is expected to lead to profound changes in coastal morphology and its rate of development. Due to the intense use of widespread lowland areas, changes in mean and extreme water levels as well as coastal morphodynamics can be assumed to have a considerable impact on existing forms of land use. The associated number of potentially concerned inhabitants and the existing property values lead to a considerable rise in the potential for flood-related damages. Increasing requirements, especially with regard to design events, will force the state coastal protection in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to adapt to a new (natural and socio-economic) framework and to align with other spatially relevant interests. This is accompanied by an increased need for the state coastal protection administration for the most reliable long-term projections, advanced design approaches and efficient adaptation strategies in order to meet these challenges. The purpose of this paper is not a presentation of new scientific data, but to identify and explain foreseeable challenges and knowledge deficits for state coastal protection taking the perspective of the public administration based on experience, measurements, third party scientific studies and definitions by expert committees.
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